5 minute read | In Focus: State Governor and Legislative Elections
November.09.2022
The late breaking “red wave” – forecasted by pollsters and pundits alike and detailed in our last release – did not materialize, especially at the state level where nearly all of the key legislative chambers and gubernatorial elections on our watch list broke in favor of Democrats. The groundswell of momentum for the Democratic Party reported in the summer and earlier this fall appears to have continued through election day.
Republican underperformance at the federal level – paired with redistricting that made several state legislative seats competitive – boosted Democrats in several swing legislative chambers across the country. The exceptions may be Nevada, where at least one chamber may flip to Republican, and Arizona – where the GOP may hold onto either or both chambers. Election ballots are still being counted to determine the final legislative chamber control in states like Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Compiled below are all the gubernatorial races and legislative chambers that have been reported as final as of midday on November 9.
Once the dust settles, Orrick’s Public Policy Group will provide a third and final midterm election installment analyzing the election results and the forecasted impact on macro state policy initiatives in 2023.
Gubernatorial Races:
Legislative Chambers:
Abortion Rights Ballot Measures & Exit Polls:
State |
Before Election | After Election |
|||||
House | Senate | Governor | Open? | House | Senate | Governor | |
AL | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Kay Ivey (R) | No | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Kay Ivey (R) |
AK | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Mark Dunleavy (R) |
No | Outcome TBD | Outcome TBD | Outcome TBD |
AZ | Republican narrow majority | Republican narrow majority | Doug Ducey (R) is term-limited. Toss up race. | Yes | Outcome TBD | Outcome TBD | Outcome TBD |
AR | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Asa Hutchinson (R) | Yes | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) |
CA | (D) supermajority | (D) supermajority | Gavin Newsom (D) | No | (D) supermajority | (D) supermajority | Gavin Newsom (D) |
CO | (D) supermajority | Democrat supermajority but considered somewhat vulnerable. |
Jared Polis (D) | No | (D) supermajority | (D) supermajority | Jared Polis (D) |
CT | (D) supermajority | (D) supermajority | Ned Lamont (D) | No | (D) supermajority | (D) supermajority | Ned Lamont (D) |
DE | (D) supermajority | (D) supermajority | John Carney (D) | No | (D) supermajority | (D) supermajority | No race. |
FL | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Ron Desantis (R) | No | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Ron DeSantis (R) |
GA | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Brian Kemp (R) | No | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Brian Kemp (R) |
HI | (D) supermajority | (D) supermajority | David Ige (D) | Yes | (D) supermajority | (D) supermajority | Josh Green (D) |
ID | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Brad Little (R) | No | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Brad Little (R) |
IL | (D) supermajority | (D) supermajority | J.P. Pritzker (D) | No | (D) supermajority | (D) supermajority | J.B. Pritzker (D) |
IN | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Eric Holcomb (R) | No | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | No race. |
IO | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Kim Reynolds (R) | No | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Kim Reynolds (R) |
KS | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Laura Kelly (D). Toss-up race. | No | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Laura Kelly (D) |
KY | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Andy Beshear (D) | No | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | No race. |
LA | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | John Bel Edwards (D) | No | No race. | No race. | No race. |
ME | (D) supermajority | Democrat majority, but Republicans hoping to flip. | Janet Mills (D). Toss-up race. | No | Outcome TBD | (D) supermajority | Janet Mills (D) |
MD | (D) supermajority | (D) supermajority | Larry Hogan (R) is term-limited. Democrats expected to pick up trifecta | Yes | (D) supermajority | (D) supermajority | Wes Moore (D) |
MA | (D) supermajority | (D) supermajority | Charlie Baker (R) is retiring. Democrats expected to pick up trifecta. | Yes | (D) majority | (D) majority | Maura Healy (D) |
MI | (R) majority | (R) majority | Gretchen Whitmer (D) | No | (D) majority | (D) majority | Gretchen Whitmer (D) |
MN | Democrat majority but considered a toss-up. | (R) majority | Tim Walz (D) | No | (D) supermajority | (D) supermajority | Tim Waltz (D) |
MS | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Tate Reeves (R) | No | No race. | No race. | No race. |
MO | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Mike Parson (R) | No | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | No race. |
MT | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Greg Gianforte (R) | No | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | No race. |
NE | (R) supermajority in unicameral legislature. | Pete Ricketts (R) | Yes | (R) supermajority in unicameral legislature. |
Jim Pillen (R) | ||
NV | (D) supermajority | Democrat majority but considered a toss-up. | Steve Sisolak (D). Toss-up race. | No | Outcome TBD | Outcome TBD | Outcome TBD |
NH | (R) majority | (R) majority | Chris Sununu | No | (R) majority TBD | (R) majority TBD | Chris Sununu (R) |
NJ | (D) majority | (D) majority | Phil Murphy (D) | No | No race. | No race. | No race. |
NM | (D) supermajority | (D) supermajority | Michelle Lujan Grisham (D). Republicans hoping to flip. | No | (D) supermajority | No race. | Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) |
NY | (D) supermajority | (D) supermajority | Kathy Hochul (D) | No | (D) majority TBD | (D) supermajority TBD | Kathy Hochul (D) |
NC | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Roy Cooper (D) | No | (R) majority | (R) majority | No race. |
ND | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Doug Burgum (R) | No | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | No race. |
OH | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Mike DeWine (R) | No | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Mike DeWine (R) |
OK | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Kevin Stitt (R) | No | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Kevin Stitt (R) |
OR | (D) supermajority | (D) supermajority | Kate Brown (D). Toss-up race. | Yes | Outcome TBD | Outcome TBD | Outcome TBD |
PA | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Tom Wolf (D) | Yes | Outcome TBD | Outcome TBD | Josh Shapiro (D) |
RI | (D) supermajority | (D) supermajority | Dan McKee (D) | No | (D) supermajority | (D) supermajority | Dan McKee (D) |
SC | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Henry McMaster (R) | No | (R) supermajority | No race. | Henry McMaster (R) |
SD | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Kristi Noem (R) | No | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Kristi Noem (R) |
TN | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Bill Lee (R) | No | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Bill Lee (R) |
TX | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Greg Abbott (R) | No | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Greg Abbott (R) |
UT | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Spencer Cox (R) | No | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | No race. |
VT | (D) supermajority | (D) supermajority | Phil Scott (R) | No | (D) supermajority | (D) supermajority | Phil Scott (R) |
VA | (R) majority | (D) majority | Glen Youngkin (R) | No | No race. | No race. | No race. |
WA | (D) majority | (D) majority | Jay Inslee (D) | No | (D) majority | (D) majority TBD | No race. |
WV | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Jim Justice (R) | No | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | No race. |
WI | (R) majority | (R) majority | Tony Evers (D). Toss-up race. | No | (R) majority | (R) supermajority | Tony Evers (D) |
WY | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Mark Gordon (R) | No | (R) supermajority | (R) supermajority | Mark Gordon (R) |