4 minute read | March.20.2025
An update to our ongoing insights into the Trump administration’s broad tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, plus targeted tariffs on key commodities and processed products worldwide.
Product Scope Uncertainty: On March 6, President Trump issued Executive Order 14231 and Executive Order 14232 amending the tariffs imposed on Canadian and Mexican products to exclude products that qualify as Canada-origin or Mexico-origin under the USMCA and enter the United States tariff-free under the USMCA. The President announced such exclusions for USMCA-covered products will end on April 2.
Determining whether the tariffs cover an import from Canada or Mexico requires analysis of whether the imported item qualifies for preferential tariff treatment under the USMCA. To qualify for preferential treatment under the USMCA (under general note 11 to the U.S. tariff schedule), an item must either (i) be produced entirely within Canada and/or Mexico, or (ii) otherwise meet product-specific “rules of origin” requirements under the USMCA. Depending on the circumstances, USMCA rules of origin may qualify merchandise for preferential tariff treatment if (i) its tariff code classification differs from that of inputs used to produce the merchandise, or (ii) a specified percentage of the merchandise’s value is attributable to North American inputs.
At the same time, the new tariffs generally apply to imported items that are “products of Canada” or “products of Mexico” under standard U.S. customs rules of origin. Under these standard rules of origin, merchandise is normally considered to be the product of the last country in which inputs were “substantially transformed” into the merchandise. It is possible that imports from Canada or Mexico are products of Canada or Mexico under this standard test, but do not qualify for preferential tariff treatment under the USMCA. In these circumstances, the new tariffs would apply, even if the items at issue entered the United States tariff-free prior to implementation of the new tariffs.
Electrical Power: Consistent with long-standing U.S. practice, it appears that the U.S. government is not collecting the new tariffs on imports of Canadian or Mexican electrical power.
Still, in retaliation for the Canada import tariff, on March 10 Ontario announced a 25% tax on electricity exported from Ontario to northern U.S. states. Ontario dropped the electricity export tax following threats of a U.S. import tariff increase.
Steel and Aluminum: Previously announced 25% tariffs on steel and steel derivative products and on aluminum and aluminum derivative products took effect on March 12.
Among the aluminum derivative products subject to the new tariff are utility-scale wind towers, which are already subject to antidumping and countervailing duty orders when sourced from Canada, China, Indonesia, South Korea and Vietnam.