Midterm General Election Update

Introduction:

Since 1922, the party that controls the White House has lost state legislative seats in the first midterm election cycle. Historically, Democratic presidents lose an average of 388 state legislative seats, and Republican presidents lose an average of 345 state legislative seats. Paired with the current political environment, it is no surprise Democrats are facing an uphill battle in their pursuit to flip GOP legislative chambers with slim majorities, like Arizona and Michigan. Conversely, experts are dubious about the environment favoring the GOP enough to jeopardize Democratic control of legislative chambers in Colorado and Nevada.

Notably, the midterms will be the first election cycle since all 50 states finalized their new congressional and state maps triggered by the 2020 redistricting process. States such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Colorado are considered more competitive since redistricting. In particular, Democrats feel bullish about flipping the Michigan House and Senate where Republicans currently maintain narrow majorities and have perpetually lost seats since 2014.  Republicans see an opportunity to flip party control in the Minnesota House, which would be the first since 2018, although Democrats believe the redistricting process has increased their chances of retaining control of the chamber.

Republicans currently have a trifecta—meaning control over the House, Senate, and Governor seat—in 23 states. Democrats have a trifecta in 14 states, and there are divided governments in 13 states. In November, Democrats are considered vulnerable to losing (i) their trifectas in four states (CO, ME, NV and OR), and (ii) three gubernatorial races (ME, NV, and OR ). Republicans, by contrast, are considered vulnerable to losing their trifecta in four states (AZ, GA, NH, and TX), with Arizona being the most vulnerable at the gubernatorial and legislative level.

Gubernatorial Races to Watch:

Governorships are currently split with Republicans in control of 28 seats and Democrats in control of 22 seats. There are 36 gubernatorial elections in 2022. Democrats are focused on defending five seats—Kansas, Maine, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Oregon—of which the first four are the most vulnerable, according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball and The Cook Political Report.

Meanwhile, Arizona—where Republican Governor Doug Ducey cannot seek reelection due to term limits—is considered one of the most competitive races on the map. The election pits Trump-backed Republican Kari Lake against Arizona’s Democratic secretary of state Katie Hobbs. Republicans are unlikely to be successful in defending the open seats in Maryland and Massachusetts, which were previously held by two-term GOP incumbents, Larry Hogan and Charlie Baker, respectively. This will result in Democrats picking up trifectas in Maryland and Massachusetts.

A map of likely gubernatorial election outcomes is below, with Republicans expected to control 17 seats, Democrats to control 14 seats, and 5 seats considered toss-ups:

Legislative Chambers to Watch:

In November, 88 of 99 legislative chambers will hold general elections. Of these, Republicans currently exercise majorities in 55 of the 88 chambers, or 63%. Uniquely, Alaska and Minnesota are the two states in this election cycle with split party control between their two legislative chambers – and they are projected to be the most vulnerable to flip to full GOP-controlled legislatures in November.

The political composition at the legislative level makes one dynamic abundantly clear: political polarization is at its strongest in state legislatures, and the current political winds do not suggest there will be material changes to party control in state legislatures, save for a few battleground states. Most of the projected changes will come from both parties chipping away at the opposing party’s majorities in perennial swing states experiencing competitive “top-of-the-ticket” races in November.

These dynamics will be most pronounced in the following chambers:

Republicans are doubling down to flip the Minnesota House, bolstered by their success in maintaining control of the highly targeted state senate during the 2020 elections. Republicans are also poised to flip the Alaska House and have made significant investments to win back seats, if not majorities, in the Colorado Senate, Maine Senate, and Nevada Senate. Democrat stronghold legislatures considered most vulnerable to losing seats – as opposed to flipping control – include Illinois, Oregon, and Washington.

On the flipside, Democrats feel most confident about the Michigan legislature, where Republicans in both chambers are barely holding onto shrinking majorities. Arizona’s House and Senate are also viewed as prime pickup opportunities for Democrats, where both chambers have a one-seat majority and are vulnerable to highly competitive statewide races for U.S. Senate, Governor and Attorney General. In addition, Democrats feel more confident than ever about retaining control of the Minnesota House, despite historical trends, as a result of redistricting. Republican chambers most vulnerable to losing seats include Georgia, Pennsylvania, Texas, and New Hampshire.

A map depicting the likely and vulnerable Republican and Democratic state political trifectas and toss-up scenarios:

Ballot Measures:

More than 131 statewide ballot measures in 37 states have been certified for the November election. This year’s ballot initiatives are focused primarily on abortion rights, online sports betting, requirements for initiating a ballot initiative, and the repeal of language related to enslavement or servitude.

Abortion rights have taken on an increased significance and became a top focus in the midterms after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June. Five states—California, Kentucky, Montana, Vermont, and Michigan—will consider ballot measures that seek to either restrict or enshrine abortion rights in November, which is the most on record. Earlier this year, voters in Kansas rejected a measure that would have restricted access to an abortion in the state.