State of the States: 2024 Elections

What are the outcomes of the 2024 U.S. state elections – and what does it mean for companies growing and operating across the country?  Our update examines the available outcomes and trends from critical state Attorneys General (AG), gubernatorial, legislative, and state ballot measures. Here’s what you need to know:

Macro Trends and Takeaways:

• The final results of state legislative elections will continue to be counted, though results so far show that party control in most state legislative chambers mirrors the results of the Presidential Election and top-of-the-ticket statewide races.
• North Carolina is the only state to split its top-of-the-ticket party vote by electing President Trump and Democratic Governor candidate Josh Stein.
• Conversely, New Hampshire and Vermont were the only two states with gubernatorial elections that supported Vice President Harris but elected Republican Governors.
• A Trump victory has us monitoring federal cabinet positions and appointments, which are expected to draw from a roster of several notable sitting Governors and AGs in key states across the country. This dynamic will create open seats and a reshuffling of political positions and/or special elections in 2025.
• This year’s state Attorneys General (AGs) elections were relatively quiet, with races in only 10 of the 43 states with elected AGs and only two potentially close contests, in Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
• Consumer protection, antitrust enforcement, and protecting children all can be expected to rank among the top priorities of these and other state AGs in 2025 and beyond, as they have throughout 2024

State Elections

Governor Races

Heading into the General Election, 27 states were led by Republican governors and 23 states were led by Democratic governors. Last night, gubernatorial elections were held in 11 states, with 3 incumbents* running for reelection and 8 open seats. All of the results are in and the split remains the same, with no change of party control in the highest office of each state.

• Delaware: Matt Meyer (D)
• Indiana: Mike Braun (R)
• Missouri: Mike Kehoe (R)
• Montana: Greg Gianforte* (R)
• New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte (R)
• North Carolina: Josh Stein (D)
• North Dakota: Kelly Armstrong (R)
• Utah: Spencer Cox* (R)
• Vermont: Phil Scott* (R)
• Washington: Bob Ferguson (D)
• West Virginia: Patrick Morrisey (R)

Noteworthy: Vice Presidential candidate Tim Walz will resume his position as Governor of Minnesota.

State Legislative Races

There are a total of 99 state chambers across the 50 states (with Nebraska being unicameral), and leading into the election, 60 chambers held a republican majority and 39 held a democratic majority, with many state legislatures holding veto-proof supermajorities. Elections were held in 85 chambers across 44 states. While few major changes to state legislative chambers are expected, there are several notable exceptions:

• The Michigan House has flipped from blue to red, breaking the state’s newly achieved democratic trifecta in 2022. The Michigan Senate was not up for re-election in 2024.
• There are also cracks in the Minnesota democratic trifecta, where preliminary results show Republicans flipped three key state House districts — resulting in an even 67-67 split between Republicans and Democrats. Recounts are expected, but if the tie holds, it means Democrats will lose the 2022 trifecta they seized after flipping the state Senate and maintaining control of the House and governorship.
• We’ve also seen a few changes in supermajority chamber control so far. Of note, the North Carolina House lost its Republican supermajority, the Iowa House gained a Republican supermajority, and the Nevada House lost its Democratic supermajority.
• Democrats were able to hold their single-seat majority in the Pennsylvania state house, despite statewide headwinds for the GOP at the top of the ticket. Pennsylvania, Michigan and Alaska are the only three states with split party chambers.
• The GOP will maintain control of the Senate in Arizona while the votes for the House remain too close to call. The latest numbers forecast Republicans likely retaining control of both chambers.

Often in battleground states, state legislative chambers are won by thousands of votes across several districts (meaning some seats are won and lost by microscopic margins). With this in mind, the exact composition of the Republican/Democratic breakdown in a few states are still undetermined.

State Attorneys General

This year’s state Attorneys General (AGs) elections were relatively quiet, with races in only 10 of the 43 states with elected AGs and only two potentially close contests, in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. In North Carolina, Congressman Jeff Jackson (D) was elected, while in Pennsylvania, York County District Attorney Dave Sunday (R) was declared the winner. Mr. Sunday’s win in Pennsylvania increases the number of Republican AGs nationally to 28, reducing Democratic AGs’ total to 23. We do not believe, however, that the election of an additional Republican AG will significantly alter the way state AGs collaborate in general.

Incumbent AGs who were seeking re-election all prevailed in their contests, in Indiana (Rokita), Missouri (Bailey – seeking election after being appointed by the Governor), Montana (Knudsen), and Vermont (Clark). In states electing a new AG, voters chose the candidate from the same party as the outgoing AG in North Carolina, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and West Virginia. Consequently, we do not expect significant shifts in enforcement priorities in these offices. Consumer protection, antitrust enforcement, and protecting children all can be expected to rank among the top priorities of these and other state AGs in 2025 and beyond, as they have throughout 2024.

Initial AG Election Results

Percentage vote totals for each incumbent and candidate are as of November 6, and of course are subject to change as additional votes are counted. Please see our State AG Control Map below.

Indiana

• Attorney General Todd Rokita (R) secured re-election for a second term with 59.1% of the vote, defeating U.S Army Reserve Lieutenant Colonel and former Indiana Deputy Attorney General, Destiny Wells (D).

Missouri

• Attorney General Andrew Bailey (R) won his first general election with 59.8% and defeated civil rights attorney, Elad Gross (D). AG Bailey was appointed by Governor Mike Parson in January 2023 after Attorney General Eric Schmitt was elected to the U.S. Senate.

Montana

• Attorney General Austin Knudsen (R) was re-elected to a second term with 60.3%, defeating attorney Ben Alke (D).

North Carolina

• U.S. Representative Jeff Jackson (D) defeated Representative Dan Bishop (R) with 51.3% of the vote. Outgoing Attorney General Josh Stein (D) chose not to seek a third term, opting instead to run for governor, a race he won.

Oregon

• State Representative and former state House speaker Dan Rayfield (D) defeated Will Lathrop (R) a former prosecutor, with 53.3% of the vote. Outgoing Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum (D) will retire from office at the conclusion of her third term.

Pennsylvania

• York County District Attorney Dave Sunday (R) defeated former state representative and Auditor Eugene DePasquale (D) with 51% of the vote. Outgoing Attorney General Michelle Henry (D) was appointed by Governor Josh Shapiro to fill the vacancy he created when he was elected governor in 2022.

Utah

• Former U.S. Representative Derek Brown (R) defeated criminal defense attorney Rudy Bautista (D) with 58.5%. Outgoing Attorney General Sean Reyes (R) has been in office since 2013 and opted not to seek re-election.

Vermont

• Attorney General Charity R. Clark (D) secured re-election for a second term with 57.9% of the vote, defeating newsstand owner, H. Brooke Paige (R).

Washington

• Former U.S. Attorney for Western Washington Nick Brown (D) defeated Pasco Mayor Pete Serrano (R) with 56.3%. Outgoing Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) was elected governor in lieu of seeking a fourth term as AG.

West Virginia

• State Auditor J. B. McCuskey (R) defeated attorney Teresa Toriseva (D) with 57.9%. Outgoing Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) was elected governor in lieu of seeking a third term.

Ballot Measures

A total of 146 measures were on the ballot in 41 states. Our team is continuing to monitor the measures of greatest interest to our clients, including measures focused on gaming, cannabis, labor-related issues, and abortion.

• Gaming: On behalf of our client the Sports Betting Alliance, the Orrick state legislative team secured a victory in Missouri by passing a ballot initiative to legalize online sports betting.
• Cannabis: The legalization of marijuana was on the ballot in 4 states. Florida, North Dakota, and South Dakota all rejected measures to legalize recreational marijuana, while Nebraska voted in favor of legalization. Additionally, Massachusetts voted to reject a measure to allow adults (21+) to possess psychedelic substances.
• Labor-Related Issues: Measures related to minimum wage increases, tipped employees, and paid sick leave were on the ballot in 6 states. Missouri voted to increase their minimum wage to $15 an hour and provide for earned paid sick leave, and Nebraska voted to require earned paid sick leave. Arizona rejected a measure that would have altered how tipped workers are paid, and Massachusetts rejected a measure to increase the minimum wage for tipped workers. The results are still out on measures in Alaska (to increase the minimum wage to $15/hour and provide earned paid sick leave) and in California (to increase the minimum wage to $18/hour).
• Abortion: There were 11 ballot measures in 10 states related to abortion, primarily to provide for a state constitutional right to abortion. Measures to enshrine a constitutional right were passed by voters in Arizona, Colorado, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, and Nevada. Similar measures failed in Florida, Nebraska, and South Dakota. Indirectly related, New York passed a measure to provide that people cannot be denied rights based on a number of categories, including reproductive healthcare and autonomy.

The 2024 Elections for State Attorneys General: Initial Results